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bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >But the facts Above, the factors affecting the oil market have changed. Even though the global economic growth rate, interest rates, exchange rates, global population growth rate, geopolitics and climatic conditions will all have an impact, in addition, changes in the global financial market may cause oil prices to deviate from these fundamentals, speculators' Trading sentiment can even lead to huge instantaneous fluctuations in oil prices.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >Moreover, the famous foreign financial blog Zero Hedge Zrhd cited an article by global actuary r, saying that the global energy market has undergone earth-shaking changes, and the future of the oil market Not so optimistic. The crude oil market has fallen into a dire scenario and there is no reasonable price that can satisfy both supply and demand. Either the oil price is too high, which affects the market's demand for crude oil, or the oil price is too low, making it unaffordable for producers. Both situations are not conducive to the sustainable development of the global economy. In general, the equilibrium price between supply and demand has disappeared, and the market and crude oil producers have entered a period of confusion regarding the standards for oil prices.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >The real price demanded by crude oil producers today is actually far beyond what the market can bear. Take Saudi Arabia, which is extremely dependent on crude oil revenue, as an example: outsiders may think that its oil production cost is US dollars per barrel, but if you consider taxes, benefits needed to maintain social order, funds needed to import supplies, and all other things that support the country's economy Adding up the costs, the actual oil price level required by Saudi Arabia is between US$/barrel to US$/barrel, and even they cannot actually afford the oil price level of US$/barrel. However, although such high oil prices meet the needs of oil-producing countries, global inflation levels will also rise, and global demand for crude oil will also shrink, thus hindering the development of the global economy.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >This may leave the policy statement little changed compared to the previous one. In March, policymakers believed conditions for raising interest rates had been strengthened, but they wanted to see more signs of economic recovery before taking action. Since the election will be a few days after this meeting, investors do not believe that the Fed will choose to act at this time. Data shows that the market expects only a % chance of raising interest rates this month.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >Many officials have clearly stated in recent public speeches or interviews that they expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at the end of this year. However, as the unemployment rate remains at about % , inflation is also below the % target, and they are not in a hurry to raise interest rates. New York Fed President Dudley said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Sunday that there is no urgency to change monetary policy.