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bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , With the continuous depreciation of the RMB, market risk aversion has increased. Analysts at Goldman Sachs (DHR) believe that Chinese funds may flow into the gold market, boosting gold prices that have been frustrated by expectations of interest rate hikes. Other analysts believe that the depreciation of the RMB may have bottomed out.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , ,
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >Goldman Sachs analysts Kerry (r) and Layton () and others believe that with the As the renminbi continues to weaken, the Chinese government's regulation of the real estate market may cause capital to flow into the gold market and increase gold demand.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >Goldman Sachs analysts said that China's physical gold holdings have now increased, and the trend appears to be highly correlated with the recent trend of yuan depreciation. Therefore, gold, which has previously recorded a monthly decline due to expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, may gain upward momentum driven by demand. According to data from the website of the Swiss Federal Customs Administration, China's gold imports from Switzerland in March were . tons, a huge increase from the monthly . tons.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >In addition, Goldman Sachs reiterated that the bank has a neutral attitude towards the prospects of gold until the end of this year, and any price lower than the US dollar per ounce is a strategic increase in gold positions. good opportunity.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >In other words, whether China's demand can boost gold prices depends on whether the RMB will continue to depreciate. So far this year, the onshore RMB has depreciated by .%, and the offshore RMB has depreciated by more than % during the same period. As the offshore RMB fell below the low of , it has passed through the iron bottom of , is close to the baby bottom of , and is not far away from what the market calls the diaper bottom of .
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >In this round of devaluation, the depreciation of the RMB itself is because the US dollar is too strong. This can be seen from the exchange rate of the RMB against currencies such as the euro and the pound. Therefore, the RMB's orderly retreat step by step is not a crisis as far as the RMB itself is concerned. At the same time, the devaluation has not affected the stock market, forward and futures markets, so the only unpleasant thing is that devaluation and capital outflows form a vicious cycle.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , >Since the US dollar remains strong, even if the RMB sell-off may be slightly overdone and trigger a slight rebound, the trend in the depreciation channel has not changed, so a rebound can only The hope is in the Central Bank of China, but the central bank’s tolerance is getting higher and higher.
bzbrb hh hd ' , 'r H', , , > Judging from historical experience, the central bank has adhered to the exchange rate of. .,.maybe need to move. This depends on the willingness of major Chinese banks to defend or settle foreign exchange. If it is very strong, it means that the policy willingness has reached its peak, which is a signal of reversal.